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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

ANALITY TECNICAL

MOVING AVERAGES (MA)
Moving Averages (MA) adalah pergerakan rata-rata harga penutupan dalam
suatu periode tertentu. Dengan MA kita dapat melihat trend harga yang terjadi.
Bila MA bergerak ke atas berarti trend sedang naik dan begitu pula sebaliknya.
Bila harga menembus MA berarti trend sedang berubah.
Semakin pendek periode waktu yang digunakan semakin cepat MA memberikan
indikasi perubahan trend tetapi semakin sering terjadi salah prediksi (false
signal).
Semakin panjang periode waktu yang digunakan semakin lambat MA
memberikan indikasi perubahan trend tetapi dapat mengurangi kesalahan
prediksi. Karenanya sering digunakan lebih dari satu periode MA. Panjang
pendek periode yang digunakan tergantung pada tujuan investasi jangka
panjang atau pendek.
Moving Averages ada beberapa macam, salah satunya yaitu Simple Moving
Averages (SMA) & Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Prinsip dasar
keduanya sama hanya beda perhitungan saja.
SMA : lebih halus
mengurangi fake signal,
deteksi lebih lambat sesuai
kejadian sebelumnya.
EMA : deteksi cepat sesuai
dengan kejadian saat ini,
sering terjadi false signal.

Cara terbaik menggunakan Moving Averages adalah dengan menggunakan lebih
dari satu periode MA dalam chart sehingga dapat melihat pergerakan jangka
pendek dan jangka panjang. Gunakan MA 5, MA 20, MA 60. Bila dua periode MA
saling bersilangan merupakan signal perubahan trend sebagai indikasi buy atau
sell.
Untuk investasi jangka panjang MA sangat sering digunakan sebagai penentu
trend.

BOLLINGER BANDS
Bollinger Bands digunakan untuk mengukur tingkat Volatility (kestabilan
pergerakan harga). Ketika harga cenderung diam bands akan merapat dan
ketika harga aktif bands akan melebar.
Bollinger Bands juga berfungsi sebagai Support & Resistance dimana harga
cenderung bergerak bolak-balik antara batas atas dan batas bawah (Bollinger
Bounce).
Bolinger Bands sangat membantu bila pergerakan harga sideway (konsolidasi).
Dan dapat memberikan signal Breakout.
Bollinger Squeezze dapat
digunakan sebagai tanda dimulainya
suatu trend baru, yaitu bila bands
semakin merapat biasanya
menandakan akan terjadi
pergerakan yang signifikan. Bila
harga menembus batas bands
makan harga akan bergerak
berkelanjutan.

Pada beberapa indikator sering dilengkapi dengan poros tengah Bollinger Bands
yang dapat juga digunakan sebagai indikasi trend.

PARABOLIC SAR
Parabolic SAR memberikan indikasi kapan suatu trend dimulai dan kapan trend
berakhir. Sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menentukan dalam mengambil posisi
maupun keluar posisi.
Parabolic SAR sangat
mudah digunakan. Jika
titik-titik berada di bawah
adalah tanda posisi BUY
sedangkan jika titik-titik
berada di atas sebagai
tanda SELL.
Kelemahan Parabolic
SAR adalah jika
pergerakan harga
mendatar dan sering
memberikan false signal.
Sebaiknya digunakan
untuk pasar yang memiliki
karakteristik perubahan
harga dalam periode
yang agak panjang.

MACD

MACD singkatan dari Moving Averages Convergence Divergence. Digunakan
untuk mengidentifikasikan Moving Averages yang berindikasi dimulainya trend
baru.
Dengan MACD kita dapat melihat 3 buah indikator. Pertama adalah garis MA
periode pendek (fast), kedua adalah garis MA periode panjang (slow) dan ketiga
adalah susunan histogram atau garis yang menggambarkan ukuran jarak antara
kedua MA tersebut.
MACD Crossover
Karena kedua Moving Average (MA)
memiliki kecepatan yang berbeda, MA fast
akan lebih cepat bereaksi mengikuti
perubahan harga dibandingkan MA slow.
Ketika trend baru terbentuk MA fast akan
menyilang (cross) MA slow. Saat terjadi
crossover tersebut menandakan bahwa
trend baru mulai terjadi.
Signal kedua yaitu apabila MA pada
MACD telah menembus garis centerline
MACD.
Kelemahan dari MACD adalah lambat
dalam memberikan signal. Karena
bagaimanapun MACD terbentuk dari ratarata
harga yang terjadi sebelumnya.
Kelebihannya yaitu MACD jarang
memberikan false signal karena lebih
halus geraknya. MACD tidak menunjukan
signal kondisi oversold atau overbought.

Prinsip dasar MACD yang harus diperhatikan adalah :
1. MACD akan bergerak membentuk puncak tertinggi hingga mencapai lembah
terendah. Begitu pula sebaliknya.
2. Ada 3 kemungkinan pergerakan harga terhadap MACD :
• Harga akan bergerak sesuai MACD
• Harga bergerak berlawanan MACD tetapi kemudian akan mengikuti
sesuai MACD disebut Divergent Covergent
• Harga akan bergerak sideway hingga akhir trend MACD
Dengan prinsip ini kita akan mendapatkan profit yang maksimal dengan
kemungkinan loss kecil.
Sebagai indikator pendukung MACD dapat digunakan Stochastic Slow 8,3,3
untuk menentukan puncak & lembah MACD atau area oversold-overbought.

STOCHASTIC

Stochastic adalah indikator lain yang dapat membaca kapan suatu trend akan
berakhir. Stochastic menentukan kondisi pasar Overbought (jenuh beli) atau
Oversold (jenuh jual).

Stochastic memiliki skala 0 – 100, jika garis stochastic mencapai skala 70
menandakan Overbought dan harga akan turun setelah garis meninggalkan
skala 70. Sedangkan jika garis stochastic mencapai skala 30 menandakan
Oversold dan harga akan naik kembali setelah garis meninggalkan skala 30.
Signal Entry & Exit pada Stochastic yaitu pada saat stoch meninggalkan area
overbought atau oversold.
Stochastic memiliki dua garis %K & %D biasa disebut trigger line, jika kedua
garis saling bersilangan dapat dijadikan sebagai signal entry atau exit.
Sayangnya signal trigger menjadi kurang akurat karena sering memberikan false
signal.

RELATIVE STRENGHT INDEX (RSI)

RSI hampir sama dengan stochastic yaitu menunjukan kondisi Overbought dan
Oversold. Skala RSI adalah 0 – 100, dengan skala 80 sebagai batasan
Overbought dan 20 sebagai batasan Oversold. Cara membaca RSI sama
dengan Stochastic.
Kelebihan RSI adalah dapat digunakan sebagai konfirmasi terhadap perubahan
tren yang terjadi. Sehingga sering digunakan untuk menghindari signal palsu.
Bila garis RSI menembus level 50 maka trend benar-benar sudah terbentuk,
perhatikan gambar di atas.

OSCILLATOR & मोमेंतुम

Oscillator / Leading Indicator.
Kelebihan Leading Indicator yaitu memberikan indikasi sebelum trend berubah.
Kelemahannya sering memberikan signal palsu.
Indicator yang termasuk kategori oscillator yaitu Stochastic, Parabolic SAR & RSI
Momentum / Lagging Indicator.
Kelebihan Lagging Indicator yaitu memberikan signal setelah trend benar-benar
terbentuk. Kelemahannya indikasi yang ditunjukkan lebih lambat.
Indicator yang termasuk kategori ini yaitu MACD dan MA
Kedua indikator ini dapat saling mendukung bila digunakan bersamaan tetapi
terkadang juga justru akan saling bertentangan (konflik).

Oscillator / Leading Indicator
Pada contoh di atas RSI, Stochastic & Parabolic SAR memberi signal BUY,
kemudian RSI & Stochastic mengindikasikan kondisi Overbougt cukup lama
sementara Parabolic SAR masih mengindikasikan Uptrend. Kemudian RSI,
Stochastic & Parabolic SAR mengindikasikan signal SELL.

Pada contoh gambar di atas (2 kasus pertama) RSI, Stochastic memberi signal
BUY sementara Parabolic SAR hanya memberi signal BUY beberapa bar
setelahnya tetapi harga malahan meluncur turun dan Parabolic SAR kembali
menunjukkan SELL.
Pada 2 kasus berikutnya Stochastic memberi signal BUY sedangkan RSI tidak
memberi signal dan Parabolic SAR tetap memberi signal SELL. Karena itu jika
ketiga indikator tersebut tidak memberikan jawaban yang sama lebih baik untuk
tidak mengambil posisi.
Momentum / Lagging Indicator
Pada contoh di atas MACD Crossover memberi signal BUY dan EMA Crossover
memberi signal BUY, kemudian disusul EMA memberi konfirmasi BUYdan harga
melejit naik.
Pada kasus berikutnya MACD Crossover memberi signal SELL kemudian
dikonfirmasi dengan signal SELL dari EMA Crossover, sayangnya harga tidak
turun. Setelah harga naik MACD memberi signal BUY kembali diikuti oleh EMA.
Kasus berikutnya MACD memberi signal SELL dan EMA memberi signal SELL
dan harga turun.
Setiap indikator memiliki kelebihan dan kelemahan masing-masing
sehingga biasanya digunakan kombinasi 2-3 indikator yang berbeda.
Jangan ambil posisi kecuali 2-3 indikator yang digunakan mengindikasikan
hal yang sama. Tetapi jangan menggunakan indikator terlalu banyak karena
akan membingungkan.

TIME FRAME (SKALA WAKTU)
Skala waktu yang digunakan akan sangat mempengaruhi keputusan yang harus
Anda ambil. Penggunaan skala waktu tergantung kepada jenis trading Anda
apakah Long Term atau Short Term.
1. Long Term (jangka panjang)
Periode yang digunakan adalah harian, mingguan, bulanan bahkan
tahunan.
Keuntungan :
- Tidak perlu setiap hari memantau perkembangan harga.
- Sedikit transaksi sehingga mengurangi komisi atau spread
(perbedaan harga jual/beli) yang harus dibayar.
- Analisa tidak tergesa-gesa sehingga bisa lebih akurat.
Kerugian :
- Pergerakan harga besar sehingga butuh ketahanan dana yang besar.
- Kemungkinan terjadi kerugian dalam waktu lama.
2. Short Term (jangka pendek)
Periode yang digunakan adalah 1 jam. Dan hold posisi maksimal 1
minggu.
Keuntungan :
- Lebih banyak peluang trading
- Kerugian dalam jangka waktu yang lama berkurang
- Cukup waktu untuk melakukan analisa.
- Dana yang digunakan sedang tidak besar dan tidak kecil.
Kerugian :
- Komisi atau spread yang harus ditanggung cukup besar
- Terkena biaya overnight.
3. Intraday (Harian)
Peiode yang digunakan biasanya 1, 5, 15 menit. Hold posisi hanya dalam
1 hari saja.
Keuntungan :
- Banyak kesempatan untuk trading
- Tidak terkena biaya overnight
- Kerugian cukup singkat.
- Dana yang digunakan tidak perlu besar.
Kerugian :
- Harus terus memantau pergerakan harga harian
- Mental harus kuat
- Biaya transaksi besar
- Profit dibatasi dalam 1 hari.
Gunakan 2 atau 3 Skala Waktu bersamaan untuk memutuskan posisi apa yang
harus Anda ambil. Gunakan Skala Waktu dengan periode lebih panjang untuk
mengetahui tend harga sebenarnya.





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3-Day Cycle Method

LSS - An Introduction to the 3-Day Cycle Method

Part 1 - The Basics The LSS 3-Day Cycle Method, which is based on the writing of George Douglas Taylor's classic "Book Method" of the Nineteen-fifties, is designed to identify support and resistance. This market strategy is particularly useful in day trading because it identifies zones where the market can be bought or sold with decreased risk. Taylor's contribution to market literature is important in that he correctly identified market "engineering." In a nutshell, Taylor maintained the market was taken lower to create buying opportunities for market insiders or taken higher to create selling opportunities for these same knowledgeable individuals. When put to the test, this pattern does indeed appear to be relevant.
How and why this market "engineering" takes place is not as important as recognizing that it does occur. You don't have to be a long-time market analyst to notice that a lower opening is often followed by higher prices, nor that a higher opening is likewise often followed by declining prices.
Additionally, Taylor provided a scenario for the pattern that this engineering created - a 3-day cycle that repeated. This pattern consisted of:
A buy day, or "L" day, when the market would be taken lower on the open, providing the opportunity to purchase contracts at favorable prices.
A sell day, or "S" day, when the market would trade at or near the previous day's high, providing the opportunity to sell at a profit the prior day's long positions.
A short sell, or "SS" day, when the market would open at an extreme, providing a short selling opportunity for contracts that could be "covered" or purchased lower at the end of the day.
For students of day trading, these patterns often emerge as so-called "gap" openings, when prices are taken "out of line" by buying or selling pressure. To understand why these gaps exist, you only have to consider the conventional wisdom of the marketplace. Among the brokerage communtiy, there is a well-established tendency to suggest the placing of stop-loss orders above and below the previous day's highs and lows. Accordingly, when the market is "taken" into these key stop-point areas, the buying or selling increases dramatically. It
is this "uniformed" stop-loss buying or selling which provides the energy for the market to create unrealistic price levels. Using the ignorance of the uninformed and emotionalism of the market to their advantage, therefore, the smart money engineers simply "fade" - trade against - this short-lived trend. The results are often encouraging. I know what you are thinking: isn't this illegal? Not if placing stop-loss orders is a legitimate activity in the market. After all, no one forces you to buy a top or sell a bottom, or otherwise act against your own best interest. Thus, the 3-day cycle simply capitalizes on a natural human tendency - the tendency to fear losing money.
For you to effectively use LSS, you need to convince yourself that these patterns exist. See for yourself whether the market is ever taken up in order to be taken down - vice versa. The reason so many market participants do the wrong thing is precisely because this goes against human nature. If the market is going up, you don't want to sell. At that point, the trend is clear. But is it really?
The notion of paradoxical approach to the marketplace is not new. Indeed, the tenets of contrary opinion theory say exactly this: the majority is likely to be wrong. So why shouldn't a counter-trend philosophy prove successful? We are told that futures trading is a zero-sum game, suggesting that the losers provide the profits for the winners. As far as it goes, this is correct. But this does not mean winner and loser exist in a one-to-one relationship. Far from it. The fact is, the tiny minority earns the lion's share of all the money in the futures market. This is why it so hard to win. Many, many traders contribute funds to the relatively small handful of winning traders. Taylor knew this and this is why his 3-day cycle notion is such a powerful concept. The knowledgeable traders win because they know something that is not fundamentally understood by the vast majority of fellow traders.
Anyone who has spent any time studying the market - especially the actions of the pit traders - will acknowledge that this pattern is common phenomenon. In fact, the tendency for most traders to be wrong is so widespread that one could say it is a rare day when the uninformed players get any opportunity for profit at all. A typical scenario is a rising market charaterzied by more and more "paper" - public orders - entering the pit as buyers. Since there is indeed a seller for every buyer, although not necessarily in a one-to-one fashion - one big seller may fade one-hundred buyers - the tendency is for the market to rise, stall out, and then crash. The crash, by the way, is helped along by the panicky selling of the erstwhile buyers. Waves of stop-loss orders to sell are triggered as the market plummets. And the big short sellers, who spent the morning
selling everything is sight, are calmly standing there in the afternoon, saying, "Buy'em, buy'em, buy'em." They make fortunes doing this.
Taylor had the notion that the tendency of the market to rally or decline could be quantified. This led him to develop the so-called "Book Method," which was essentially a book listing recent rallies and declines, thus measuring where the support and resistance could be found. It is this manipulation of the numbers which is at the heart of the LSS system. Taylor, by the way, called this process "taking the count." If, for instance, the market has a tendency to rise or sell-off so may points from a prior high or low in a recent market, the tendency is apt to persist.
Accordingly, one can create market parameters. This quantification of the market has a benefit beyond the obvious one of telling you where the support and resistance exists. Significantly, it provides you with a framework within which to operate. This means you don't have to pick the absolute low without doubting your analysis. You can buy several times within a so-called "buy envelope," knowing the support should hold. And if it doesn't hold, you likewise know the time has come to exit the position immediately. This ability to "take the difficult trade" is, in my opinion, the key to the success of the LSS system. It gives you the confidence to stay with a winner. And a framework against which to measure the success of a trade. By setting up parameters, which both quantify and limit risk, you have a viable approach to trading which can stand you in good stead from the first to the last.
Why Day Trade?
There are many ways to approach winning in the market. You can position trade, spread trade, scalp trade or engage in more sophisticated strategies using both futures and options. Day trading is one of the simplest approaches because it involves taking positions which are then exited by the close of trading. There is a decision every day which can easily be quantified. You are either winning or losing money. You are either successful or not successful. Moreover, given today's volatile and liquid markets, this activity can extremely lucrative. Day trading also offers a promising risk/reward ratio.
While not for everyone, this type of trading offers the very best odds for overcoming the prohibitively difficult problem of simply surviving in the market. How many people enter the futures markets each year only to leave after a few months of losses? Believe me, the numbers are high. Since the notion of survival must, by necessity, be the very first rule of trading, this strategy guards against that proverbial trade that goes south on you when you
freeze in the market. More than once, long-term position trading has ended the career of the novice trader who didn't understand the risks. Then there is the question of deep pockets. Most novice traders simply don't start out with large cash reserves. For them, holding overnight positions isn't practical - or safe. I'd rather know my risk and manage it successfully (i.e., take intra-day losses) than leave myself open to the kind of catastrophic losses that can develop overnight. The irony is that even these occasional aberrations in the market tend to see prices ultimately settle back where they started. This is the unkindest loss of all when you are forced out of a winning position on a momentary price swing.
There is an inverse relationship between the newness of the trader and his degree of realism about the market. New traders invariably underestimate the risk. This is why they might buy a S&P contract and go to Europe. But the professionals know better, I like the idea of sleeping will at night. Why risk ruin should an untoward economic or political event occur? Day trading suits my temperament. Moreover, it is the chosen method of trading of perhaps eighty to ninety percent of all floor professionals Don't you think they would be going overnight if the risk/reward ration favored that approach?
You could make the argument that until recently the technology didn't favor this short-term approach to the market. But with the advent of personal computers, sophisticated software, and on-line data services, today's speculator might as well be standing in the trading pit. In fact, with today's technology, you could make the argument that the off-floor day trader even has an advantage over the floor trader. The technology is that good.
Taylor's Book Method approach is (excuse the pun) tailor-made for today's market. Given today's technology, computers can easily calsulate by and sell envelopes, measure and identify average ranges, profit, and stop placement points and track the positions all in one package. This makes the tedious calculations,and the likelihood of mathematical errors, a thing of the past. While not every market lends itself to the day trading approach, due to a lack of volatility or liquidity or both, there are perhaps eight to ten good day trading markets where you'll find significant opportunities exist in this one time "insider's game".
In short, the advantages of day trading are the profits coupled with the low risk. By monitoring a handful of markets, you can seize the opportunities as they come along. This type of trading will force you to be sharp. But it can extremely rewarding.
The Advantages of the Day Trading Approach
If you are new to day trading, you will find that this strategy offers some significant advantages. For one, you are subject to reduced margin requirements. This means you get "more bang for your buck" margin-wise. If the margin for an overnight position in the volatile S&P 500 futures market is say, $15,000, the day-trading margin is half that, or just $7,500. Now, that may seem like a lot of money to you. But when you compare this "good faith" margin deposit against the quarter-of-a-million dollar value of the contract, you are talking about just two percent. This means your leverage is 50-to-one versus 25-to-one on an overnight position. This is significant when it comes to magnifying your money.
Also, as a day trader, you only want to be along for the profitable trend. These, by definition, tend to be very short term. The longer you are in the market, the more likely the position will fluctuate in value, and the tendency is to get out at the worst possible moment - right when the market is likely to turn profitable once again. With the 3-day Cycle Method, you are strictly looking for the one-way ride. Then you exit, bide your time and patiently await another opportunity.
Getting Started
If you are new to day trading, it will pay to acquaint yourself with market basics. First you want to know the best markets to trade, the trading hours, tick values and other general information. Fortunately, this is all easy to acquire. Among the leading day-trading markets, I would suggest the following:
S&P 500
U.S. Treasury Bonds
Swiss franc
Deutschemark
British pound
Silver
NYSE Dow
Coffee
Copper
Soybeans
Your broker can tell you the tick values and trading hours, or you can get get that information from the various exchanges's websites. But these are important to a day trader since most of the significant price action occurs shortly after the open and before the close. It is also important since you will probably be closing out positions with so-called "MOC" ("Market on Close") orders. These need to be placed prior to the close, which can vary as much as an hour or more between markets. Never trade a market unless you are absolutely certain that you understand the tick values and session hours. These are straightforward in nature and simple to understand.
With LSS, you are attempting to capitalize on a high-probability trend occurring. Although markets move every day, thse high-probability trades require patience to identify. But you will find that this type of selectivity is what wins the game. Let's move on. Part 2 - Using the 3-Day Cycle
Identifying the 3-Day Cycle
To capture the best trading opportunities, it helps to identify the 3-day pattern as it develops. The ideal pattern is three days, although it can be prolonged into four and even five days, depending on market activity. The key to understanding the 3-day Cycle is knowing the order during the day when the highs and lows occur. Was today's high made at the start of the trading session, or at the end? Was the low made first? To correctly assess tomorrow's price action, you need to understand what day in the cycle occurred today.
The ideal pattern consists of the follwoing:
Buy Day - low made first follwed by a rally
Sell Day - market trades at or near the previous day's high
Short Sell Day - high made first followed by a decline
This pattern is particularly easy to spot in a nontrending market, which is charaterized by prices which are up one day and down the next. What do you do if you anticipate, let's say, a short sell day, with the high made first, and the reverse occurs? You then rephase the cycle by pushing the anticipated cycle
ahead one day. That is, you anticipate the high made first and instead you have the low made first and the market rallies. Typically, you can then anticipate the short sale pattern occurring on the following day.
Be forewarned that the 3-day cycle does not mean you can simply by or sell every three days. Such a formula would be far to pat for a successful system. Because of the complexity of the market, you must take into account numerous circumstances which could cause the market to trend unexpectedly. Trending markets are characterized by one-way price direction which cannot be successfully faded as long as the single trend persists. Accordingly, when you encounter such a trend, you must be willing to step back and say, "The market wants to break right now; the only way to approach this trend is to sell every morning in anticipation of the short sell day (high first, low last) pattern."
Once the market reaches equilibrium, of course, the normal 3-day pattern will again emerge. Taylor used a series of X's and check marks to pinpoint whether the high or low occurred first. On buys, he would insert an X if the low occurred first. On short sell days, when he aniticipated the high to occur early, he would insert an X if the high occurred first. He used checks, however, if these anticipated patterns didn't occur in the sequence he was anticipating. He also circled the high on sell and short sell days. Fortunately, today, we have computer software to keep track of these calculations.
The reason you want to learn to identify the pattern is to enable you to spot an emerging profitable opportunity before everyone else. This is a little discussed aspect of trading, but an important one - namely, the role of confidence in your ability to win. No matter how good your trading system, if you don't have confidence in its ability to pinpoint winners, you won't be able to pull the trigger. Because LSS anticipates, it provides you with the ability to see a trade developing before it becomes will known. For example, let's say you just experienced the classic short sell pattern with a selloff following a higher opening. Looking to tomorrow, you are anticipating a lower opening as prices continue to decline.
While this might be a trap for uniformed sellers, the 3-day Cycle Method user anticipates support in the buy envelope. Often, this is the precise pattern which occurs.
Find the Intra-day 3-Step Cycle
In recent years, as the S&P market has become more volatile, I've been studying ways to capitalize on the classic 3-day pattern that occurs on an intra-day basis within the trading day. Could one isolate the same market cycles on
an intra-day basis? I felt that this was important to know since the intra-day swings have become so pronounced in recent years. Why risk giving back the morning's winnings on a retracement in the afternoon?
After a comprehensive study of 5-minute bar charts, I was able to identify precisely such a pattern. Often, the market would gap open in the morning (high made first), and the market would plummet and stabilize. Then, following a period of consolidation during the lunch hour, the market would trade lower (low made first in the afternoon), and the market would rally! Moreover, I've found so many examples of this intra-day pattern that I cannot chalk it up to happenstance.
This explained the difficulty in holding onto hard won profits in the market. If the pattern was occurring on an intra-day basis, it meant I was holding onto positions for an entire cycle. Of course, one could expect to give back profits if one held the position too long. This is especially true on choppy days. Trending markets, of course, are much more likely to reward those who initiated their positions in the morning and held to the close. To my mind, this analysis of intra-day patterns offers some of the best opportunities for finding consistent, low-risk trades. We have incorporated these insights into the new LSS software by setting up additional parameters and filters which require the market to "prove" that a signal is legitimate. For example, let's say we are anticipating the short sale pattern and the market soars higher. This could suggest one of two things - either the market is higher because it is fundamentaly strong, in which case it should trend even higher, or it has encountered resistance and is about to break. In the latter case, the market will then trade down from price A at the top to price B, somewhat lower. Often, the fact that it has retreated to that lower price is the proof that a sharp selloff is imminent. This type of strategy is quite sophisticated and complex. But it can only be fully explained by an understanding of the cycles which are inherent in the market on both an inter-day and intra-day basis.
How Markets Rise and Fall
The seeds of every decline are hidden in every rally. Like the tides in the ocean, markets have their own rhythms. To better understand this phenomenon, you need only monitor your own behavior when you trade. If you purchase futures contracts and have the good fortune to see prices rise, you soon begin to think of taking profits. This requires selling. Selling, in turn, pushes down prices, and, as prices decline, more and more former buyers, seeing their profits evaporate, become serious sellers. The snowball effect. Soon everyone wants to sell and the market becomes oversold. This downside
pressure is the other side of the coin of the enthusiam that is generated when prices rise. In time, the buying becomes overdone - and the inevitable selloff begins.
It is this constant ebb and flow of rising and declining expectations that cause prices to gyrate up and down. With LSS, we are simply trying to capitalize on this pattern by quantifying the magnitude of the respective moves.
The numbers, therefore, become our guideline in trying to analyze the market. In discussing the notion of gap openings recently, I encountered the question of the precise meaning of the gap and why one's interpretation must differ according to the size of the gap. Specifically, a small gap opening is apt to be "filled," but a large gap means the market will run. With LSS, we attempt to place a precise number on the odds where a move "should" stabilize. This is then incorporated into the system as a signal. Once the market shows that this particular support or resistance is no longer valid, however, all bets, in a sense, are off. That is, if a given support or resistance is violated, chances are the market is headed significantly higher or lower depending on the thrust of the move.
There is a subtlety here that cannot be ignored by the intelligent trader. And it flies in the face of all the mechanical approaches that have ever been devised. Specifally, not all market moves are the same. Yesterday's rally and today's rally may appear the same to you, but chances are they are totally different in nature. One may have been a simple short-covering panic rally, which soon vanished, whereas the other might have been the real thing. Each market demands a different response if you are going to be successful.
The tendency to want literal - often simple and easy - answers can be your undoing in the market. May of my clients tend to be airplane pilots and I find that they can be either the best or worst of traders. For one, they pay attention to numbers and are capable of following the rules of mechanical systems; for another, however, they tend to be very literal-minded and this can be a trap when dealing with the nuances of the futures markets. It probably isn't fair to single out a given profession, but my point is that the market is a fluid, changing phenomenon whose true understanding sometimes requires what one wag called, "capturing lightning in a bottle." How did you know to puchase the market there? What did the indicators tell you that no one else could see? These are the kinds of questions that go to the heart of a viable trading system.
Numbers alone often have difficulty in distinguishing among different stimuli. How else then do you explain the common trading experience of winning one
day and losing the next by following the very same precise rules. Why didn't yesterday's - or last month's or last week's - rule work today?
It is beyond the scope of this brief discussion to cover the many nuances of trading. Suffice it to say successful market analysis requires a combination of intelligent measuring techniques with a more global view of daily cyclical analysis.
How to Determine Where the Market Will Go
The LSS 3-day Cycle Method is base on probabilities. This was the genius of Taylor's discoveries. As a S&P 500 futures trader, I can tell you with a degree of certainty that tomorrow's range will likely be less than 800 points (although it occasionally exceeds that level) and more than, let's say 300 points. How do I know this? Because I trade the contract every day. On even the quietest day, I can tell you that we will see more than 100 or even 200 points. Accordingly, if I encounter an intra-day range of, say, 100 points, I know there's a reasonable dregree of certainty we will exceed that range before the day is over. Selecting the direction and the method in which the range will extend is a somethat more difficult undertaking. But the point is, I have something to work with.
By relying on solid evidence, therefore, the system makes a judgment as to market range. This, in itself can be quite valuable.
Trending vs. Non-trending Markets
Perhaps the most important question you can ask yourself at the start of trading each day is, "What kind of market are we likely to encounter today?" This is not always easy to answer. But one clue should be the type of price action you encounter shortly after the open. A quiet, non-trending market will be characterized by a small change from the prior day's close plus low volatility. A wild, barnburning type market, on the other hand, will be characterized by high volatility, and perhaps numerous price reversals.
LSS is designed to leave the quiet days alone. The parameters will dictate that the market "demonstrate" that it wants to move significantly. Otherwise, why take the risk? But on the non-trending days, you can use the simple one-day overbought/oversold indicator as your guideline in buying or selling - fading rallies if the prior day's trading was in excess of 70 percent or buying dips if the prior day's reading was below 30 percent. A trending market, however, calls for following the trend in the 10-day overbought/oversold oscillator - buying
above 50 percent and selling below that level. This ability to recognize the kind of day you are experienceing early on will stand you in good stead.
What about breakouts? Here, again, let the market be your guide. If you are buying within the buy envelope where prices should stabilize, a breakout below the support signifies that something is wrong - and you quickly have to exit your long positions and become a short seller. The same is true, in reverse, should you sell against a resistance in the sell envelope. How will you know if you are correct? Typically, you will know right away because one of two things will happen - the market will move significantly away from the prior support or resistance, or it will break out and immediately return (price rejection) back into the support or resistance.
This "false" move also requires immediate action since the market now is no longer breaking. The move was invalid. Assuming you acted in the best of faith (remember, if you were correct, you would have substantial profits by now), you must minimize the damage immediately. Markets that fail rarely offer you an opportunity to get back profits. Accept the mistake and move on.
Summary
While numbers alone are not sufficient, they take some of the guesswork out of the market. For this reason, you should be prepared to do homework following the close of trading each day. This involves making the necessary calculations and trying to make sense out of the trading session just finished. Was this the buy day pattern - low made first, high last? Or did today's selloff suggest the market is due to rally tomorrow - the classic short sale day pattern? Just remember, it is one thing to suspect tomorrow's pattern, but it is clearly another to insist on a pattern. The market cannot be forced. Simply anticipate and try to make sense out of what is happening. But always let the actual market action be your guide.
From time to time, you will encounter choppy markets that present no rhyme or reason. Better to step back and allow the confusion to abate. You don't have to trade every day. Indeed, the profitable historical record of LSS is due to its "selectivity." The better, high-probability trades are harder to find. But they are worth the wait.
Don't let seemingly random movements confuse you. Taylor maintained that the markets operate best (for the knowledgeable insiders) precisely when this confusion reigns. There is often a method in the madness - even if it is only stop-running. Your most challenging enemy? Not those rapacious floor
traders. Typically, the individual trader is his own worst enemy. So try to analyze your own trading mistakes and see how you might take a better approach next time.
Part 3 - Reviewing Taylor's Tips The LSS 3-day Cycle Method is based on the work of George Douglass Taylor. Written more than forty years ago, Taylor's "Three Day Trading Method" emphasized the fundamentals of trading which have become second-nature to most market professionals today. Advice such as trade volatile markets with sufficient liquidity, track recent and past price performance, learn all you can about the market you are trading, and so on. This is all sound advice. Even more so since it comes from a perspective of four decades. During that time, of course, everything has changed (witness the revolution in computers) and nothing has changed (human emotion is still the same; people fear losing money). Perhaps the greatest of all his advice is the simplest - know your market.
In speaking of the tendency of markets to rise and fall in predictable patterns, he writes: "...observe the way they rally and decline and the number of points in the spreads from highs to lows to high, study them for regularity and continuity of their movements." Then he suggests staying with one market. More good advice.
He talks about the 3-day pattern and how a higher close on the second day in the cycle sets up the ideal pattern on day three - namely, a higher open which can be sold in anticipation of lower prices. Go to the market and see if you can identify this pattern. The first time I tried to identify this pattern I was thrilled by what I saw - a higher open followed by sharply lower prices. Even before the price break, I couldn't help thinking, "Don't these buyers know we are in the third day up and that the market is going break?" Apparently, they didn't. The market did break. I felt I was in possession of a rare and valuable commodity, market knowledge. It was to help me to earn profits and stay out of trouble for years. Frankly, prior to reading Taylor, I didn't have a clue what was going on.
"at your Selling Objective you must sell out..."
Here again, Taylor saw the wisdom of taking profits. Given today's volatility, this is more applicable now than it was then. You cannot hold positions in today's markets without getting whipsawed back and forth. Thus, the only way
to deal with this heightened volatility is to get in the market, earn the profit and get out. Taylor stresses that the market will probably give you another opportunity to buy at lower prices. Why ride the market both up and down? Although difficult to read, Taylor's advice on taking small losses is likewise right on target:
"It might be well to point out here that a trader must take small losses but he takes them when they are small and he tries to stop them as quickly as possible when he sees that he is wrong and in taking them he is not losing anything at all but is playing for position and a more favorable chance to trade that he knows will soon appear."
Taylor also talks about averaging into a position, a strategy I heartily endorse. This suggests one should buy additional contracts at slightly higher or lower prices in a support zone within the buying envelope. By purchasing these additional contracts at or near the inital entry price, you are giving yourself a chance to build a position and take advantage of what Taylor calls "market manipulation." Again, he talks about trading technique by saying:
"Trading technique, is simply the ability through study, observation and experience, to detect the manipulation that takes place in the markets at all times, and to recognize the signals in each, of the several phases, of the market movement."
A believer in the 3-day pattern, Taylor creates a scenario that is hard to deny to any student of the market. Morever, he convincingly makes the case that all this is by design. He sets up the ideal short sale day pattern (our SS day), by listing these series of events:
market closes higher, setting up the potential for higher open
market opens higher next morning
the move penetrates prior day's high and slows down
Here is his verbatim observation:
"The selling we are looking for at this point is inside short selling and it gradually overcomes the unwise long buying by the traders at the top of this rally - or it stops the rally abruptly and the decline starts right in many times from the opening prices."
He mentions that highs are created under what he calls the "cover of strength." Then, once the buying dissipates, the market halts and soon breaks. This the perfect short sale scenario.
Volume
Taylor observed that tops and bottoms - even intraday ones - are made on significantly higher volume. This is usually a good indication that the markets has finally reversed direction. When a market is trending day after day, the volume may be building. But you won't see a major reverse in prices until the volume demonstrates a dramatic increase. This is almost always the case. Moreover, this notion fits well with a so-called "perverse" theory of the markets. That is, a market won't seriously go down until every last short seller
is absolutely killed. The reverse is true at bottoms. This is also the reason why you can so often be "correct" about the market, yet still lose money. You sold; but panicked on the short squeeze, buying the top. That's the proof the rally is finished. Look for these volume spikes and you will have a good idea of when the trend has come to an end.
Looking for a Bottom? Here's the Ideal Pattern
The hidden genius of Taylor's observation lie like gems amid the confused writing. Consider the following:
"Bottoms of long declines may be reached by a particular violent downward thrust - establish a low - generally followed by an immediate sharp rally and a subsequent slower decline on a greatly reduced volume and activity - stopping short of the last low. A trader does not try to buy long . . . this fast decline - he waits for the 'quiet spot' on the reaction after the rally - and when the market becomes 'dull.'"
Students of the tape do well to follow this advice. Despite the writing, I've never encountered a better explanation of when to buy. I urge every trader to get a copy of "The Taylor Trading Technique" and struggle though the pages for gems like these.
Summary
This short introduction to the LSS 3-day Cycle Method is designed to cover the basics of short-term, day trading। There is always more to learn. The true masters of the market, people like George Douglass Taylor and W. D. Gann, have no equal today. Yet, with the advent of sophisticated, high speed computers, we all have an advantage today that Gann and Taylor never had. With the help of software programs, market theories can be tested and examined. I hope this introduction leads you to explore these further.


By George Angell
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How to Earn $50 to $500 a day

The Forex Profit System:
‘How to Earn $50 to $500 a day Forex Trading from the Comfort of Your Own Home!’

OVERVIEW

Dear Friend,
Thanks for your interest in my Forex Profit System. The Forex Profit System’s purpose is to empower beginner and intermediate Forex Traders to learn how to trade the currency markets profitably, using the free tools and analysis available on the Internet.

The goal is to earn $50 to $500 per trade and minimize losses on losing trades using 2 technical indicators, which I will explain later on in this report. The potential to profit is there for those who trade this system. The great thing about Forex trading is that you can test my system for FREE on a demo account using virtual money, before you risk one penny on actual trades.
I trust that this simple system will kick start potential currency traders around the world, and aid you in learning more about the wonderful world of Foreign Exchange trading.


Forex Profit System Foundations:

Before we begin looking at the specifics of the FPS and how it works, let’s look at 4 building blocks that I believe to be foundations to the Forex Profit System.
Foundation #1: I highly recommend that you follow 1 or maybe 2 major currency pairs।
It gets far too complicated to keep tabs on all four. I also recommend that traders choose one of the majors because the spread is the best and they are the most liquid. I personally follow only USD/CHF because it moves the most every day.

Foundation #2: Follow and understand the daily Forex News and Analysis of the professional currency analysts.

Even though this system is based solely on technical analysis of charts, it is important to get a birds-eye view of the currency markets and the news that affects the prices. It is also important that you know and understand what the key technical ‘support’ and ‘resistance’ levels are in the currency pair that you want to trade. Support is a predicted level to buy (where currency pair should move up on the charts), resistance is a predicted level to sell (where the currency pair should move down on the charts).

Foundation #3:Fortunately, all the best Forex news and analysis is offered free on the Internet। Here is what you should do first:
*While you are reading the daily news and technical analysis, write down on a piece of paper what direction the analysts are saying about the major currency pair you are following and the key support and resistance levels for the day.
A. Go to www.forexnews.com and you will find 24hr news and analysis on the spot FX markets. The site will give you the big picture of how the economic calendar and central banks affect the currency markets. A great resource.
B. Next visit Commerzbank’s Daily Market Technicals here:
www.commerzbank.com/upload/dailye.pdf
This daily commentary gives you supports and resistances and predicted direction of the major currency pairs and crosses. One of the best.
C. Then go to www.fxstreet.com and click on the ‘Top Forex Reports’. Here there is a wonderful listing of all the major daily currency analysis and forecasts with support and resistance and direction forecasts.
D. Click on www.currencypro.com and go to ‘Today’s Market Research’ and there you will find more excellent analysis on the Major Currency pairs. Another great Forex Portal.
Foundation #3: Only get into a trade when the FPS technical indicators say when. Always trade with stop losses!
It is important when you are trading Forex, to be disciplined and to stick to a plan. Don’t just trade your ‘gut’ feeling. Use the technical indicators outlined and always enter in stop losses on every trade.
Foundation #4: Practice makes perfect.
As they say, there is no substitute for hard work and diligence. Practice this system on a demo account and pretend the virtual money is your own real money. Do not open a live trading account until you are profitable trading on a demo account. Stick to the plan and you can be successful.
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Forex Profit System:
Step 1: Prepare your charts
The Forex Profit System uses 2 technical indicators to show you when you should enter and exit a trade. These are called the Parabolic SAR (read more about the PAR SAR here:) www.equis.com/Education/TAAZ/?page=87 and the Exponential Moving Average 10, 25 and 50. (Read more about multiple EMA’s: here:) www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/moving_averages_three.htm
Now if you are new to Forex trading, you will have no idea what I just mentioned. Don’t worry, I will teach you how to use them.
A. For FREE charts and analysis go to www.gcitrading.com and click on the resources tab, then on the ‘GCI live forex charts’ link.
B. A java-charting window of EUR/USD should pop up. Now you can add studies to your chart.
C. Click on the grid button on the top of the chart to take the grid on the charting screen off (optional).
D. At the top, click on instrument and change the chart to USD/CHF. This is my favorite currency pair to trade because it swings up and down the most. You can choose any major pair you like though.
E. Change the time of the Chart to 60 min (top left corner)
F. Click on Studies and click on Parabolic SAR. Click on display when it shows you the .02 and .2 acceleration factor and constant.
G. Click on Studies and Moving Averages and then click NEW.
H. Click on Exponential, then enter 10 in the Period box, then OK.
I. Click on NEW again, click exponential, then enter 25 in the Period box, then OK.
J. Click on NEW again, click exponential then enter 50 in the Period box then OK. Click on display and you should have the Parabolic SAR and the three EMA’s 10, 25 and 50 in different colors on your charts.
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Step 2: When to Enter and Exit your Trades
This is what your chart should look like. These are the FPS indicators that I use to trade. The EMA 10 should be in pink, the EMA 25 should be in yellow, and the EMA 50 should be in blue. The Parabolic SAR is charted with dots above and below the line.
When to ENTER a trade
The FPS indicators tell you when to get into a trade when the EMA ten crosses the 25 and the 50. If the ten crosses the 25 and 50 up from the bottom, you enter your trade ‘long’ and ‘buy. If the 10 cross the 25 and 50 down from the top you go ‘short’ and ‘sell’. Make sure that when you get into your trade that the Parabolic SAR is on the bottom when you go long and on the top when you go short.
In the example above, on October 15th, there was a great opportunity to go long on the USD/CHF pair, where I circled and labeled enter. Notice how the EMA 10 crossed up the 25 and 50 and the Par SAR was on the bottom.
*If you are trading the hourly charts like in the above example, make sure that the 15 min charts Parabolic SAR is going the same way. Simply click on the arrow beside the 60 min and change it to 15 min and your studies will automatically adjust to the new time frame. Never trade against the 15 min Parabolic SAR!
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When to EXIT a trade
The best time to exit a trade is when the price crosses back down through all 3 EMA’s on the chart. Notice in the above example that the Dark Blue line—the actual price of USD/CHF on the 20th crossed back down all three indicators where I circled EXIT. If you held this position all week, you could have made a 275 pip profit.
With 1 lot traded on a standard account this would have been approximately $1780.00 in profit. With 2 lots--$3560! A mini account would have profited you $178 and $356 respectively.
If you profited 275 pips with EUR/USD or GBP/USD you would have made approximately $10 per pip, which you would have made $2750 with one lot and $5500 with 2 lots traded. Not bad for one week!
Where to Set the Stop Loss
When you open a demo account you will find on the online trading platform that you will always be able to enter a stop order level that will automatically stop out your trade at the level you set, or a limit order that will close your position at your desired profit level.
Using the FPS means that you should always set your level just below the EMA 50. As your position moves in the right direction, you should move your stop accordingly. Then if your position moves against you, you would have locked in your profits by moving up your stop order. It is important that if the prices cross back over the 10, 25 and 50 that you close your position.
Here is an example of how the FPS works on the 15 min charts:
(See top of next page)
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Using the FPS on the 15 min charts is more volatile, but it will give you more trades on an intra-day basis. On the example above you could have sold the USD/CHF ‘short’ at 1.5060 and closed your position at 1.5000 for a 60 pip profit.
One note of caution trading the 15 min charts: there are often times when the price will ‘whipsaw’ back and forth, up and down through the 10,25 and 50 moving averages. If this happens soon after you entered a trade, close your position and wait till the moving averages fan out and the Parabolic SAR signals strong.
Short Term ‘Scalp’ Trading the 1min Charts:
In our first example, trading the technical indicators on hourly charts is called swing trading, with trades lasting for a few days and sometimes even weeks. In our second example we looked at the 15min charts which traders call day trading, with trades that last hours and sometimes most of the day. Scalp trading is when you use the 1 to 5 min charts to ‘scalp’ small profits. These trades usually only last a few minutes to an hour.
You can use the FPS to scalp trade Forex on the 1 min charts. Here is how:
1. Instead of using the 10, 25, 50 EMA’s like we did in the above examples, put on the 25, 50 and 100 EMA’s.
2. Often it is best to scalp trade at the London Open (3:00AM EST) or the New York open (8:00 AM EST) because that is generally when the currency pairs will start to move more in one direction.
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3. When the actual price crosses all three indicators, you enter your trade, long or short. If the price crosses down through the 100 EMA, enter short, if the price crosses up through the 100 EMA go long.
4. Make sure that you book a 5-10 pip profit. That is a $50-$100 dollar profit on a regular account, and more if you bought more lots. Don’t try to hang on to you winning position to long, because the price can whipsaw back and you can lose. Take your 5-10 pip profit as soon as you can. Here is an example on the 1 min charts:
Notice that at 10:30 EST you could have entered USD/JPY long (big circle) when the price crossed up through the 100 EMA and at 10:45 you could have closed your position (little circle) and made a 10 pip profit. Then again the price crossed back down the 100 EMA at 11:30 EST. You could have sold the Yen short (big circle) and then ten minutes later made another 10 pip profit. (little circle)
Step 3: Test-drive the Forex Profit System on a FREE Demo Account
Now that you have a feel for the FPS you should now look for an online Forex Brokerage that offers free demo trading accounts. Here you can apply the FPS system without risking real money. You will also get a feel for the trading platform that these firms offer clients.
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Here I will list the one’s that I believe to be reputable and regulated in the countries they do business. I am also listing the Firms that have ‘mini’ accounts and relatively small minimum regular account deposits. Check out each one and open a demo account in one with one or more of these companies, and test out the FPS on their trading platform.
1. Capital Market Services LLC www.cms-forex.com
2. Forex Capital Markets www.fxcm.com
3. GCI Financial Ltd. www.gcitrading.com
4. MG Financial Group www.mgforex.com
5. ACM www.ac-markets.com
Step 4: Start Trading
Now the ball is in your court. You have some tools in your hands to work with, and you can practice all you want on a demo account. When you feel you are ready, and you are trading profitably, then is the time to open a real account.
If you have any questions about the FPS trading strategy, please email me at bortucene@ziplip.com and I will be happy to assist you. Thanks again for your interest in this trading system.
Kind Regards,
Erol Bortucene

P.S. Here are two other sites that I highly recommend Forex enthusiasts to visit. Firstly www.forexdirectory.net is the most comprehensive Currency trading directory on the Internet--a very helpful tool. Secondly, www.moneytec.com offers a free forum for traders, novice to advanced, to ask questions and comment on the Foreign Exchange markets.











Disclaimer:
Investment in the currency exchange market involves risk. There is no guarantee that readers of this document or our website will make money. Readers use the information and links entirely at their own risk. Erol Bortucene President of Forex Capital Strategies does not accept any liability in respect of any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any use of the information on or accessed through this document or our website. All intellectual property rights in this report remain the property of Erol Bortucene.

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Sunday, October 2, 2011

“AA+” Rating
Do you happen to know that about $6.77 trillion has been
wiped off the value of global equity markets after S&P downgraded
U.S. debt for the first time?
It is the well known thing that reports and statements given by important politicians
and economists have great impact on currency market moves. Anyone can talk about it
hours, but it can be more interesting to see the real trading days in terms of news.
That is why we decided to share the Forex news with you having not only facts in store
but real figures.
Let me talk today about the following:
Standard & Poor’s rating agency reduced
the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United
States from “AAA” to ”AA+” on August 5.
In fact, it is somewhere between very strong
and extremely strong capacity to meet the financial
commitments. And despite the fact that the US was
removed from their CreditWatch list, the rating
outlook remained “negative”.
None of the two other biggest credit rating
agencies (Fitch Ratings and Moody’s) followed S&P. They still granted the United
States their highest ratings possible (“AAA” and ”Aaa”).
What are these rating agencies?
Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) is the holding company for Moody's Analytics and
Moody's Investors Service, a credit rating agency which performs international financial
research and analysis on commercial and government entities. The company also ranks
the credit-worthiness of borrowers using a standardized ratings scale. It is one of the Big
Three credit rating agencies and has a 40% share of the world market, as does its main
rival, Standard & Poor's; Fitch Ratings has a smaller
share.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_%26_Poor%27s - cite_note-1
Standard & Poor's (S&P) is a United States-based financial services company. It
publishes financial research and analysis on stocks and bonds.
The Fitch Group is a majority-owned subsidiary of FIMALAC, headquartered in Paris.
Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions and Algorithmics, are part of the Fitch Group.
Fitch Ratings positions itself as a global rating agency dedicated to providing value
beyond the rating through independent and prospective credit opinions, research and
data. Fitch Ratings is the smallest of the "big three", covering a more limited share of the
market than S&P and Moody's, though it has grown with acquisitions and frequently
positions itself as a "tie-breaker" when the other two agencies have ratings similar, but
not equal, in scale.
There is always a difficulty in forecasting
the currencies future.
But this is the first rating downgrade in US
history, leaving the analysts without precedents
to research.
In addition, the effect of such a downgrade
on the US currency may be dual: it may signal the approaching economic recession, thus
raising the demand for safe-have currencies, or it may signal only weakness in the US
economy and more precisely in the US debt papers, driving the demand off the US
Treasury notes.
Following that US credit rating downgrade many of the Forex traders wondered how
the currencies would react.
Under these conditions, it is more prudent to analyze the possible behavior
of the separate currency pairs — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF, because
the outcomes for each of them may be quite different.

EUR/USD
The euro is also burdened by the debt and fiscal
troubles that have led to credit rating downgrades
of some Eurozone states. Fortunately for the euro, there
is no unified credit rating for the Eurozone. Nevertheless,
the euro may get hit hard from the US downgrade,
as the traders might get scared away by the possible new
series of rating reductions in Europe. If the news
for the United States are bad, the news for the Eurozone aren’t any better. In addition,
the technical charts show that the EUR/USD currency pair is still consolidating. All this
suggests a very uncertain future for the Forex pair with a high chance for a range-bound
market.

GBP/USD
While the British pound is closely tied to situation
in the Eurozone, it traded more robustly than the euro
during the last several weeks. Although the UK
economy is currently characterized by a very slow
growth combined with a soaring inflation,
the government takes serious measures to decrease
the public debt and there is a great confidence in their
actions among the consumers and business.
The United Kingdom still holds the highest S&P rating — “AAA”.
On the other hand, the US rating cut opens up a possibility for the downgrades
of the other developed countries, which could feel safe earlier. The United Kingdom is not
an exception. But even if that happens, it won’t be too soon, so, fundamentally,
the pound remains stronger than the euro and the US dollar.

USD/JPY
USD/JPY analysis is complicated with another factor
(which is also an issue for the Swiss franc) —
the currency intervention by the Bank of Japan.
There’s also a yen-positive factor though. It’s
in a long-term bullish trend, which seems to be
unstoppable, despite all the rhetoric from
the Japanese financial authorities. In spite
of the previous currency interventions, the yen has always managed to recover quickly.

USD/CHF
Swiss franc is ridden with the same worm
as the Japanese yen — the intervention
of the central bank. But in case of franc,
the effect of the intervention was minimal
and there’s a high amount of probability that
all the Swiss National Bank‘s work to hold down the national currency’s appreciation will
be futile. Moreover, the franc has two advantages: it’s a safe-haven currency — probably
the most popular one nowadays and it’s also often bought as an alternative to the euro
when the traders are demonstrating risk-aversion.
CHF looks to be the only currency that is definitely going to benefit from the S&P
rating action.
Real trading news for the last week

August, 8 - The trading week begun with fall of EURUSD.
The euro slipped against the dollar after Standard & Poor’s cut the US credit rating.
S&P downgraded the US rating to AA+ on August 5 and left the outlook on ”negative”,
signaling that the rating can be further downgraded to AA. Two other major rating
agencies, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, maintained their AAA credit
ratings for the US on August 2 as American politician resolved their dispute about
the nation’s debt ceiling, but these rating agencies also signaled about the possible
downgrades.

EUR/USD posted a sharp drop from 1.4417 to 1.4247 as of 9:52 GMT.
August, 9 - Pound Dropped with Higher Trade Deficit
The Great Britain pound dropped after macroeconomic data provided that day about
the unexpected growth of trade balance deficit and decline of manufacturing.
The UK trade balance deficit widened to £8.9 billion in June from £8.5 billion in May.
Traders hoped for decrease of the deficit to £8.2 billion. Manufacturing production
declined with the annual rate of 0.4 percent in June. The contraction followed
the advance by 1.8 percent in the month before. Market analysts predicted an increase
by 0.3 percent.

Riots in London and other cities of Britain lead to massive damage to property and left
one person dead. Several hundred was arrested.
GBP/USD was little changed at 1.6302 as of 23:58 GMT after opening at 1.6315, rising
as high as 1.6409 and falling as low as 1.6175. EUR/GBP jumped from 0.8688 to 0.8804
and GBP/JPY slipped from 126.82 to 124.49 before trading at 125.74.
August, 10 – Dollar is affected by Federal Plans

The US dollar slumped against some other currencies, including the euro, the yen
and the franc, after the Federal Reserve kept its key Federal Fund rate near zero
and signaled that it may keep interest rates exceptionally low till mid-2013.
The Federal Open Market Committee said in its statement that “economic growth so
far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected”. The FOMC
outlined the current problems of the US economy, such as ”a deterioration in overall
labor market conditions in recent months”, growing unemployment and depressed
housing sector. As a result the Committee announced:

To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over
time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep
the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee currently
anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization
and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant
exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.
The euro reacted favorably to the statement at first, but erased gains later. The drop
was short-lived, though, and currently EUR/USD shows a strong rally. The Swiss franc
reached yet another record against the greenback before retreating. The franc moved
down against the dollar, but it’s likely just a temporary correction.
EUR/USD surged from 1.4176 to 1.4339 as of 20:21 GMT today. USD/JPY dropped
from 77.74 to 77.03. USD/CHF slumped from 0.7545 to 0.7197 and reached earlier its
new all-time low of 0.7083.

August, 11 – Franc Plunges Heavily on Prospects of Euro-Peg
The Swiss franc slumped today against all major currencies as Swiss National Bank
Vice President Thomas Jordan suggested that a short-term peg of the nation’s currency
to the euro could be legal.
The SNB was attempting to weaken the Swiss currency for several years. So far such
attempts were futile. There is a difference this time, though, as a peg wouldn’t have just
one-time effect as the previous interventions, but would put a continuous pressure
on the franc. It looks like Switzerland’s central bank is ready for unconventional
measures and such measures can help the bank to achieve its goals for making
the franc’s strength less threatening to the country’s economy.
The potential weakening of the Swiss franc can pose an interesting question (in case
the SNB would be able to achieve such weakening, of course): what currency can be
considered a safe haven? The yen is also under pressure of interventions, while the dollar
doesn’t look that safe. Perhaps investors, interested in safety, would shun the Forex
market altogether.
USD/CHF surged from 0.7263 to the daily high of 0.7687 today before trading near
0.7617 as of 21:01 GMT. EUR/CHF climbed from 1.0296 to 1.0843. CHF/JPY slumped
from 105.72 to 100.88.
August, 12 – Pound reacted positively to the news of George Osborne
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne rejected demands of the opposition
to reconsider the spending cuts that are biggest since World War II. The Great Britain
pound reacted positively to the news.
Opposition to the spending cuts is strengthening as riots and looting in London
intensifies and spreads to other cities. Yet Britain’s government remains firm in their
intention to maintain the record cuts. Osborne explained that the credibility of the UK
austerity measures helped in attracting investors to government bonds, aiding
the nation’s economy. Prime Minister David Cameron claimed that the planned decrease
of expenditure on the police can be performed “without any reductions in visible
policing”.

The sterling gained against the euro, the dollar and the yen on yesterday’s trading
session. The UK currency slid against the greenback as today’s trading session has
started. The pound attempts to hold against the yen, but slowly gives up gains. Against
the euro Britain’s currency rallied for three sessions and still hasn’t showed signs
of weakening.

GBP/USD advanced from 1.6132 to 1.6237 and retreated to 1.6212 as of 1:34 GMT
today. GBP/JPY rallied from 123.95 to 124.72 on the previous trading session
and attempts to hold at this today. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP fell from 0.8770 to 0.8750
today in the third straight session of declines.
In conclusion

This trading week is almost over. So what’s next?
We are waiting for the market stabilization and are interested in the prices for Gold
and Oil. But we can never predict the market.
And as you have noticed these days have been rather hard, and the next week may
also have something in store.
Now, I hope you would not only see the movement of the price but also the reason
behind it.


by : Rita Lasker
Readmore...

Free Indicator "MACD-2 Magic Indicator"

Introduction
Many traders use the standart MT4 indicator MACD in their trading. It is inbuilt in
MetaTrader, and this is why sometimes traders do not regard it to be useful enough.
We consider this Indicator to be the most undervalued. Its possibilities are almost
unlimited. If you can use it, you may start making very good profit even being an
absolute beginner.
Installation
1. Copy MACD-2_1.mq4 file to
C:/Program Files/MetaTrader4/experts/indicators folder and restart
your MetaTrader. Download Here
2. Open EURUSD M15 timeframe.
3. Open Navigator/Custom Indicators panel and drag the indicator named
MACD-2_1 to the chart.
4. Please, make all the settings in the “Common” tab the same as in the picture
below.
5. Please, make all the settings in the “Inputs” tab the same as in the picture
below.
6. Please, make all the settings in the “Colors” tab the same as in the picture
below.
7. Click OK
After you successfully install indicator, your chart should look like that in the
picture.
Signals
If you see that a red line crosses the blue line bottom-up, open Buy Order.
If you see that a red line crosses the blue line top-down, open Sell Order.
Close an Order getting a turning signal and open an Order in the opposite direction
at once.


by : Rita Lasker
Readmore...

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